Why Trump will LOSE
Monday, February 8, 2016 at 07:49AM
WTM

By @PeggyPapakosta

Trump will not win because he’s not one guy against many but one guy against two: Cruz and Rubio

Cruz is the more conservative and Rubio is the less conservative Republican candidate. And Trump is... Trump. He’s definitely conservative but shouldn’t necessarily be classified as Republican. He’s in a league of his own. Besides, Trump may even choose to run independently any way, especially if he loses the nomination. In any case, conservative states dominate the early primary calendar, providing an opening for Ted Cruz. At the same time, Rubio seems stronger later in the game, in states with more moderate Republican voters. And Trump sits somewhere in the middle stuck between a rock and a hard place appealing to a strange mix of both.

Let’s have a look at two crazy scenarios:

Scenario One: Rubio wins

Let’s say Cruz does well in some of the early states that have more conservative Republicans but not well enough to gain the necessary traction to win the moderate Republican voters in the states in the later primaries. Let’s also assume that his narrative does not evolve enough as the primaries progress, does not succeed in attracting the moderate vote at the presidential election and even manages to alienate it. In this scenario, Cruz could concede around April and support Rubio who has a better chance of winning not just the moderate Republicans but the country’s swing vote on November 8.

Scenario Two: Cruz wins

If Cruz does exceptionally well in the early primaries like he did in Iowa and gradually adjusts his political messaging to appeal to more moderate Republicans he then has the necessary momentum to move forward. He leaves Trump behind and Rubio concedes in time to transfer his pool of moderate supporters to Cruz and give him an extra boost. Cruz waters down his narrative enough to win the country’s moderate vote as well.

Either way the Republican party doubles its chances of winning the presidency with Cruz and Rubio as a double act

And that’s why odds are Trump will lose as other factors such as the instinct for survival will kick in to drive Republicans to victory. After all, it is their party’s turn at the helm.

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