1 Constant + 1 Tectonic Shift = Greek Snap Election on Sep 20
Wednesday, September 2, 2015 at 06:27AM
WTM

By Peggy Papakosta, @PeggyPapakosta

Image source: http://globalgreekworld.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/general-elections-in-greece-keep-calm.html

The parliamentary landscape will not change much

The Greek snap election will take place on September 20. For this reason, there was a tsunami of public opinion polls in Greece and abroad. Some were published, others were not. The campaigns will play an instrumental role in the final result. But so far, if the election were to be held tomorrow, what it boils down to is that the ruling party Syriza will probably lose a few seats. The main opposition party New Democracy will pretty much maintain its seats.

There will be little change in the seats held by Golden Dawn (far-right nazi party), Potami (center), the Communist party and PASOK (center-left). For the time being, the party Independent Greeks that formed the present government with Syriza doesn’t seem to be getting into Parliament but their entrance was a surprise last time too. The new parliamentarian entries are the far-left party LAE that broke away from Syriza and the party Union of the Centrists.

Here’s my current prediction for the September election:

 

Syriza

New Democracy

Golden Dawn

Communist Party

PASOK

Potami

Union of Centre

LAE

Predict Sep 2015

%

34,1

27,3

6,3

5,2

3,7

5,8

4,2

4,6

Seats

143

75

17

14

10

16

12

13

Results Jan 2015

%

36,34

27,81

6,28

5,47

4,68

6,05

1,79

-

Seats

149

76

17

15

13

17

0

-

 

Next week the above table will be adjusted to accommodate for new findings as the campaigns roll out. Anything can happen in 20 days!

The one big change will be the increased parliamentarian support for the MoU

Although the make-up of the parliament doesn’t seem to be changing much since most of the parties maintain their power and the two new entries are of small political caliber, there is one very substantial change. The main political debate in Greece for the past five years has been the support of or opposition to the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Greece, the IMF, the EU and the ECB. The MoU carries a number of unpopular reforms that drove both the public and consequently the political parties to declare a position of agreement or disagreement to that document or rather 3 documents. The rhetoric goes haywire but that’s the gist of it. Therefore the big change between the upcoming election and the previous one six months ago  is regarding the position of the Greek MPs in relation to the MoU. After the January 2015 election there were about 100 MPs in favor of the MoU and 200 against. After this election, there will probably be about 250 MPs in favor and 50 against. The implications of that shift are of course enormous. And that’s the gist of it.

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