Who will win the Greek Election? 
Monday, September 14, 2015 at 06:15AM
WTM

by Peggy Papakosta, @PeggyPapakosta

Scenario One

According to the 1st scenario there will be 8 parties in the next parliament excluding the right-wing party of Independent Greeks (ANEL) that participated in the previous coalition government with the Syriza party and including 2 newbies: LAE and the Union of Centrists (UoC). LAE is a spin-off of Syriza and UoC is a newcomer in the parliamentary scene but by no means in the political one. It’s been trying to obtain seats in the parliament for decades.

Here’s my previous and current prediction for the September election:

 

Syriza

New Democracy

Golden Dawn

Communist Party

PASOK

Potami

UoC

LAE

Predict 1/9/15

%

34,1

27,3

6,3

5,2

3,7

5,8

4,2

4,6

Seats

143

75

17

14

10

16

12

13

Predict 14/9/15

%

33,6

29,5

6,4

5,5

4,5

5,3

4,5

4,2

Seats

140

79

17

15

12

14

12

15

Results Jan 2015

%

36,34

27,81

6,28

5,47

4,68

6,05

1,79

-

Seats

149

76

17

15

13

17

0

-

(margin of error ±3% for both percentages and seats)

Since the beginning of the campaign 2 weeks ago, Syriza has lost some ground but not substantial and New Democracy some gained some. But the trend is for Syriza to do better as it has room to rally its base whereas New Democracy has plateaued. Using the percentages as an indicator and not the seats, almost all smaller parties have seen gains except for the left-wing LAE. The other party that doesn’t seem to be picking up pace is the centrist Potami.

Scenario Two

The 2nd scenario assumes that 9 parties will be in the next parliament instead of 8 including the right-wing party ANEL. Last time around, very few predicted that ANEL would get more than 3% of the vote share which is the threshold to obtain any seats in the parliament. If ANEL succeeds again then the landscape may look something like this:

 

Syriza

New Democracy

Golden Dawn

Communist Party

PASOK

Potami

UoC

LAE

ANEL

Predict 14/9/15

%

33,6

29,2

6,4

5,5

4,5

5,3

4,3

4,2

3,2

Seats

137

76

17

14

12

14

11

11

8

Results Jan 2015

%

36,34

27,81

6,28

5,47

4,68

6,05

1,79

-

4,75

Seats

149

76

17

15

13

17

0

-

13

(margin of error ±3% for both percentages and seats)

If scenario two is true then the 2 major parties have most to lose.

Regarding the next government, it will need to be supported by at least 151 MPs. So there are many possibilities for a coalition government. The chance of the next Greek government not including the Syriza party is next to nil

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