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Saturday
Jun062015

Turkish Elections 2015: What to watch

by Peggy Papakosta, @PeggyPapakosta

Tomorrow Sunday 7th June, Turkey votes and the two most interesting things to watch about this election is how much power Erdogan’s party AKP will lose and how many seats the new pro-Kurdish party HDP will gain. Some say HDP will not bypass the 10% threshold to enter parliament but it probably will, not just because it represents Kurds but also because its leadership has made it clear that they want to represent all kinds of minorities. Anti-capitalist HDP is seen as the Turkish version of Greek SYRIZA and Spanish Podemos.

For President Erdogan a strong left-wing pro-Kurdish party in parliament may seem like trouble but not necessarily. Like in the UK, the 2015 election produced a strong SNP with 56 members of parliament that theoretically support an independent Scotland. Their presence in Westminster will either legitimize the union or lead to its break-up depending on how the British government handles the Scotland issue despite the recent referendum result in favor of the union. The referendum gave the union some breathing space but it didn’t settle the matter because the difference between the “yes” and the “no” was not wide enough.

The same with Turkey. A strong HDP does not necessarily mean doom and the potential break-up of Turkey but it may. It is up to the Turkish government and people.

 

FORECAST 2015

ELECTION 2011

CHANGE 2011-2015

Party

Share of vote

Seats

Share of vote

Seats

Share of vote

Seats

AKP

43%

264

49.83%

327

-6.83%

-63

MHP

16%

90

13.01%

53

-2.99%

-37

HDP

10%

55

-

-

+10%

+55

CHP

26%

141

25.98%

135

-0.02%

-6

by Peggy Papakosta

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Reader Comments (1)

Amazing information in the post

July 10, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterGovt Jobs in India

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