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Monday
Apr272015

Labour + SNPx10 = Government

by Peggy Papakosta, @PeggyPapakosta

“Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.”  

This is my prediction of what the British parliament will look like after May 7th give or take a few seats:

Labour

275

Conservatives

273

SNP

55

LibDem

22

Plaid Cymru

3

UKIP

2

Greens

1

The Conservatives are an unlikely candidate for a coalition government because neither they nor the Liberal Democrats seem to have sufficient seats to form a government together. The same goes for a coalition government between Labour and LibDems. It is also unlikely that the Conservatives will form a coalition government with Labour or SNP. A second election will increase uncertainty, business uneasiness and cost at a time of increasing concern for worldwide sovereign debt crisis. And in any case, why would the result of a 2nd election be much different in a climate of public mistrust or reduced enthusiasm at best?

The most likely scenario despite the numerous denials by Ed Miliband is for Labour to enter a coalition government with the SNP. 2010 deliberations should serve as a good lesson to Labour not to be left out of forming a government. Because if a Labour-SNP alliance of 325 MPs fails, the impossibility of a Tory-SNP government of 323 MPs becomes more probable.

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