Turkish Elections: Much Ado about Nothing
Sunday, November 1, 2015 at 06:06AM
WTM

By Peggy Papakosta | @PeggyPapakosta

Turkey is holding its second national election in 5 months after failing to form a lasting coalition government after the first election on 7 June. The problem is that the political balance of power doesn’t seem to have changed much. I guess the hope was to call a snap election to form a majority government. It is proving unlikely.

The political map marks little change as the main ruling party AKP does not look like it’s going to be able to form a government on its own. Again. The main opposition party CHP remains stable and will not be able to form a government on its own either. Again. The nationalist party MHP seems to be losing some of its vote share and nearing its 2011 result but no derailing change happening here. Finally, the pro-Kurdish HDP seems to be holding its ground so there is no change there either. No single party may form a majority government so a coalition government seems to be the most plausible scenario. Again. So what was the point of this second electoral round?

 

FORECAST 1/11/2015

RESULTS 7/6/2015

FORECAST 7/6/2015

RESULTS

 2011

CHANGE 7/6/2015-2011

Party

Share of vote

Seats

Share of vote

Seats

Share of vote

Seats

Share of vote

Seats

Share of vote

Seats

AKP

42%

260

40.7%

258

43%

264

49.83%

327

-6.83%

-63

MHP

13.5%

77

16.5%

80

16%

90

13.01%

53

-2.99%

-37

HDP

13.5%

80

13%

80

10%

55

-

-

10%

55

CHP

26.5%

133

25.1%

132

26%

141

25.98%

135

-0.02%

-6

 

Perhaps Turkey should start getting used to coalition governments just like many other countries. It is a hard adjustment for all parties and nations that have gone through it but the times call for it. This election on 1 November may not change the political map of Turkey but it may provide the necessary springboard for a sustainable coalition. At last. In any case, what are the alternatives? A third snap election in a few months? A coup d’ etat?  Conceivably, a coalition government seems to be the most sensible choice.

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